Business Updates

• Happy New Year! And the best of wishes for the year ahead from A.G. Advisory.

​

Market Updates

See: Quick Notes, found on the A.G. Advisory website.1

• 11/10/2025. Another Rate Cut for the Books

  • The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate in back-to-back meetings in September and October.

• 11/27/2025. What's Up With 50-Year Mortgages?

  • With an increase in voters concerned about affordability and inflation under the second Trump administration, several mortgage reforms were discussed including the 50-year mortgage.

• 12/10/2025. Fed's Third Rate Cut Closes the Year

  • During the December meeting of the Federal Reserve Board, the Board voted to cut rates for the third time in the face of rising unemployment numbers.

• 12/23/25. GDP Jumps in Q3 2025!

  • A report published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated in late December that the U.S. economic growth jumped unexpectedly in the third quarter (July-September) of 2025 to 4.3%, compared to 3.8% in the second quarter (April-June).

• Total performance as of 30/31 December 2025 close as reported by Morningstar:2

  • S&P 500: 17.25%

  • NASDAQ: 21.27%

  • FTSE 100: 21.51%

  • Nikkei 225: 26.18%

  • Hang Seng: 27.77%

 

The Brief

This content is not intended to offer or deliver tax or legal advice. Please confirm any financial advice with your financial advisor for suitability prior to implementation.

• It was a big year in 2025 for financial, regulatory, and political change due primarily to the flurry of executive orders enacted by the second Trump administration, ranging in focus from renewable energy and the environment to artificial intelligence to immigration and foreign policy.

• Some of these changes have certainly benefited both businesses and the working class, but others appear to have caused undue harm. Recently, economists have begun to take note of a divergence of fortunes between low-wealth and high-wealth Americans and the formation of a K-shaped economy,3 in which those with significant assets are able to spend freely while those saddled with debt or without significant investment holdings are essentially left in the economic dust.

• On the brighter side of things, and although there is still much left uncertain in official statistics, the U.S. economy looks to be weathering the vast number of changes currently being made to it including deregulatory actions that have cut significant red tape and tax changes to encourage greater capital investment. Even a slower U.S. economy due to trade and immigration policy headwinds and aided by relatively arbitrary efficiency gains through aggressive cost-cutting, i.e. DOGE, seems strong enough to power through a risk of recession. Current recession predictions put risk at about 25-30% according to Stifel and RSM, an investment bank and a tax and consulting firm, respectively.4,5

• The first quarter is a good opportunity to re-evaluate your financial plan, including any changes to your cash flow from changes to your health and other insurance policies or retirement savings. Are you on track to retire in comfort? Has your cash flow changed significantly due to the expiration of the enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies? Some of your children may also soon be off to college. Make sure their education is adequately funded through a combination of grants, loans, and savings, if you do not have enough to pay for the duration up-front!

• Every financial plan will be different depending on many factors including goals, timelines, sources of income, and savings. Therefore it is important to consult with your financial advisor before making any major changes to your financial plan, as the advice may not be entirely suitable for your situation, leading to money inefficiencies or worse in fees and penalties.

• According to the Freddie Mac (FHLMC) Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, “Mortgage Rates [have dropped] to Lowest Level in 2025” in December. From nearly 7% at the start of 2025, Freddie Mac reported a 30-year fixed-rate average of 6.15%, and a 15-year fixed-rate average of 5.44%. This is a significant improvement from 6.91% and 6.13%, respectively,6 and may contribute to a strengthening housing market in 2026.

• Notable upcoming dates:7-10

  • January 1: Coverage starts for those who have enrolled in or changed Marketplace plans through December 15 with first premium paid

  • January 1: Open Enrollment for Medicare Advantage begins

  • January 1: New Year’s Day (federal holiday)

  • January 15: Open Enrollment to enroll in or change Marketplace plans ends for the year

  • January 15: Estimated tax payments for the fourth quarter of 2025 are due

  • January 19: MLK Jr.’s Birthday (federal holiday)

  • February 1: Coverage starts for those who have enrolled in or changed Marketplace plans from December 16 through January 15 with first premium paid

  • February 16: Washington’s Birthday (federal holiday)

  • March 31: Open Enrollment for Medicare Advantage ends

 

Do you have a question or comment? Contact us.

 

Event Calendar

• None.

 

References

1. Zhuang, George. 1 January 2026. Quick Notes. A.G. Advisory Firm, LLC. https://www.agadvisoryfirm.com/quick-notes

2. Morningstar. 1 January 2026. Indexes. Morningstar. https://www.morningstar.com/markets/indexes

3. Bisaha, S. and Detrow, S. 31 December 2025. What is a K-Shaped Economy?. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2025/12/31/nx-s1-5660842/what-is-a-k-shaped-economy

4. Edwards, W. 12 December 2025. Brace for a swift 20% drop in the S&P 500 if recession strikes in 2026, Wall Street forecaster says. Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-prediction-recession-2026-sp500-stifel-2025-12

5. Brusuelas, J. and Nguyen, T. 4 December 2025. Economic outlook for 2026, focusing on the United States, the UK, Canada and Australia. RSM US LLP. https://rsmus.com/insights/economics/economic-outlook-for-2026.html

6. Freddie Mac. 1 January 2026. Mortgage Rates. Freddie Mac. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

7. Health Insurance Marketplace®. 1 January 2026. A quick guide to the Health Insurance Marketplace®. Department of Health & Human Services. https://www.healthcare.gov/quick-guide/dates-and-deadlines/

8. Medicare. 1 January 2026. Joining a plan. U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. https://www.medicare.gov/basics/get-started-with-medicare/get-more-coverage/joining-a-plan

9. Parys, S., Tennant, R., de la Fuente, P., and Orem, T. 18 December 2025. When Are Taxes Due in 2026? Tax Day, Other Filing Deadlines. NerdWallet. https://www.nerdwallet.com/taxes/learn/tax-deadline-tax-day-taxes-due

10. OPM. 1 January 2026. Federal Holidays. U.S. Office of Personnel Management. https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/federal-holidays/

 

Disclosures

A.G. Advisory Firm, LLC (“A.G. Advisory”) is a Registered Investment Adviser. 

This content is intended to provide general information about A.G. Advisory. It is not intended to offer or deliver investment advice in any way. Information regarding investment services are provided solely to gain an understanding of our investment philosophy, our strategies and to be able to contact us for further information.

 

All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.

 

The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur.

 

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

 

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy will be profitable. 

 

Additional Important Disclosures may be found in the A.G. Advisory Form ADV Part 2A. For a copy, please Contact Us at info@agadvisoryfirm.com.