Quarterly Brief

Business Updates

• Advisor George Zhuang completed a roadtrip in the latter half of August to advertise A.G. Advisory’s opening for services and to create brand awareness. The trip, which routed and stopped at notable locations across the U.S. East Coast as New Jersey, New York, Virginia, and Florida, was a success! Thank you again to all who came out and those who were able to host George on this trip. There will certainly be more planned in the future and we encourage all to stop by next time as well.

• A.G. Advisory will begin financial education tabling in Battery Lane Urban Park in Bethesda, MD and Woodside Urban Park in Silver Spring, MD, starting October 6, 2025. These tabling sessions will occur 4-7 PM ET evenings Mondays through Fridays, weather and park events permitting. Stop by and say hello and to learn more about your finances.

• A.G. Advisory is also exploring locations to offer financial education seminars to interested audiences. Current locations being explored include Montgomery County Public Libraries and various senior living facilities. If you are interested or have any leads on interested organizations, definitely reach out by phone or email.

 

Market Updates

• Despite the threat of tariffs and inflation, weakening U.S. hiring numbers, global geopolitical unrest, and divisive domestic politics including the spending impasse which led to the shutdown of the U.S. Federal government on 1 October 2025, stock markets in the U.S. and internationally continue to hit all time highs, with broad rallies noted across American and international markets.1 This broad-based rally, though coming at a time of still-high uncertainty, has largely been justified not only by reactionary FOMO, fear-of-missing-out, investors but also by strong earnings as reported by high technology companies such as Meta (META) and Nvidia (NVDA); and financial companies such as Goldman Sachs (GS) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM), especially investment banks that were able to capitalize on the surge in trading activity and the increasingly positive M&A, mergers and acquisitions, environment. In fact, the third quarter saw over $1 trillion globally in M&A deals.2

• Even if the threat current risks impose is overblown, there are still signs that the labor market is continuing to weaken, which led recently to the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut short-term borrowing rates by a quarter point from 4.25-4.50% to 4.00-4.25%.3  Per Reuters, investors and major brokerages expect to see the Reserve cut an additional 1-2 times in 2025 by a quarter point each time, to a 3.50-3.75% discount rate by year end. With inflation looming overhead and economic stagnation lurking below, these relatively small quarter-point cuts by the Federal Reserve are likely justifiable actions despite risks to inflation numbers. Unfortunately, due to the shutdown of the U.S. government, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will delay the September monthly jobs report, which may obscure the true state of the American economy as we enter the final quarter of 2025.

• Because of the increasing share of American corporate earnings that are represented by mega-cap technology companies such as Nvidia and the continuing need to source new revenue, investment into fast-growing AI and data center companies is at risk of becoming increasingly circular in nature, Nvidia’s recent $100 billion commitment to OpenAI for a 10 gigawatt data center as an example.4 This new funding will be used by Nvidia to force open new avenues for growth where opportunities may not exist due to lack of capital investment or other factors, the risk of course is that these new opportunities may not be as lucrative as investors imagine, creating an AI investment bubble.

  • Note: In addition to the construction of data centers in pursuit of AI investment, other critical infrastructure such as cheap and reliable power generation and energy delivery systems must also be improved to feed the increasing energy needs of these massive data centers. Use cases for large-language model AI such as ChatGPT must also be improved to continue justifying these massive capital investments.

• In addition to the improved business environment for equity assets, a similar story can be told about the state of cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and contrarily to traditional haven assets such as gold.5,6 With newfound support from the U.S. government, cryptocurrencies and stablecoins are beginning to find their place in the economy as stores of value and lending assets. Unlike gold, however, cryptocurrencies and stablecoins are still very much a developing story. In terms of stores of value, cryptocurrencies are still quite volatile compared to traditional haven assets such as gold, government bonds, and “hard” foreign currencies. Similarly, cryptocurrency and stablecoin as lending assets continue to carry additional risks to both lenders and borrowers compared to traditional-asset-backed lending.

• Internationally, Chinese investors have been pouring money into Hong Kong, feeding strong equity values of stocks listed on the Hang Seng. France’s government recently collapsed after a vote of no confidence ousted former Prime Minister Francois Bayrou over an austerity budget needed to correct France’s increasing fiscal deficit, leading to a credit downgrade and narrowing borrowing rates between French government and corporate debt; in some cases, debt became more expensive for the French government to write than major French corporations.7 India continues to feel the pain of a 50% total tariff rate imposed on Indian exporters, though its economy is still expected to grow 6.5% in 2025 according to the Asian Development Bank.8 European markets continue their cautious push higher on greater investment and regulatory reform, but more of both will be needed to enhance returns for investors, spur real economic expansion, and increase global competitiveness of EU markets; see: Draghi report on European competitiveness.9 Global unrest and disorder remain a going concerns in Asia and Africa, most recently Morocco, not to mention the ongoing Ukraine and Gaza Wars.

• YTD performance as of 2 October 2025 close as reported by Morningstar:10

  • S&P 500: 14.17%

  • NASDAQ: 18.30%

  • FTSE 100: 15.35%

  • Nikkei 225: 12.64%

  • Hang Seng: 36.03%

 

The Brief

This content is not intended to offer or deliver investment, tax or legal advice in any way.

• As previously stated, despite the deep gloom previously overshadowing financial markets, a new optimism has emerged for investors. That is, despite the unfavorable structural changes that precipitated previous economic forecasts and that still remain, companies around the world have proven themselves very resilient in the face of rapidly changing conditions. This new optimism, I would note, is yet unproven. We are not yet 6 months from the Trump Administration’s April Liberation Day announcement; mass deportations and adverse immigration conditions persist and likely distort BLS past and future reporting statistics; and equity markets are heavily concentrated in high technology companies, though heavy industrial companies have also seen greater capital investment which should spur growth, if only artificially. The U.S. and global economy is a gigantic, slow-moving beast, and it is far from certain that the new and improved business environment can overcome all economic headwinds created by the restructuring of global trade and investment objectives.

• With all this in mind, families should continue to invest according to their desired risk tolerances, strategic portfolio allocations, and time horizons and  other needs. Diversification rules should be kept top of mind considering the state of American politics and its effects on trade, fiscal, and economic policy. The domestic economy, though strong, shows signs of flagging, and diversification into other-than-U.S. equity is a proven strategy to reduce U.S.-market risks. Diversification is also a useful mechanism to reduce non-market risks created when too much of your investment portfolio is allocated into certain asset classes. Strategies at present may include continuing to invest in both domestic and international markets, reducing exposure to oversubscribed asset classes in your investment portfolio, and exploring real and alternative assets if applicable. Each investment portfolio should align with an individual’s unique circumstances and goals and may result in very different asset allocation guidelines.

• Although not tied directly to the Federal Funds Rate, mortgage rates have experienced a decline from the 52-week average of 6.71%. According to Freddie Mac, FHLMC, mortgage rates currently average about 6.34% for a 30-year mortgage.11 These reduced borrowing costs may encourage hesitant homebuyers to enter the housing market, though refinancing might still not be worth the financing fee depending on the interest rate paid on your existing mortgage.

• Speak with a Financial Advisor at A.G. Advisory Firm, LLC today if you are unsure about your current investment portfolio asset allocations or other financial planning needs.

• Notable dates upcoming:12-14

  • 10/01/2025, FAFSA applications for 2026-27 School Year open

  • 10/15/2025, Medicare Open Enrollment for 2026 begins

  • 10/15/2025, Extended 2025 Individual Tax Returns due

  • 12/07/2025, Medicare Open Enrollment ends

  • 12/31/2025, Deadline for required minimum distributions, retirement plan contributions, and charitable gifts

 

Do you have a question or comment? Contact us.

 

Event Calendar

• 10/6/2025 - 10/31/2025: Financial education tabling at Woodside Urban Park, Silver Spring, and Battery Lane Urban Park, Bethesda, Mondays-Fridays 4-7 PM ET

 

References

1. Hodgson, I., Jones, C., Duguid, K., and Roeder, O. 2 October 2025. US government shutdown leaves traders ‘flying blind’ on jobs data. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/3d7067f4-6eb2-43cc-bdbd-1fd116cfc805

2. Carnevali, D., Gould, R., Barbaglia, P., and Bloomberg. 29 September 2025. Dealmakers defy stubborn M&A market with rare $1 trillion haul. Fortune. https://fortune.com/2025/09/29/dealmakers-1-trillion-third-quarter-wall-street-bankers-mergers-acquisitions/

3. Reuters. 3 October 2025. BofA Global Research moves Fed rate cut forecast to October from December. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/bofa-global-research-moves-fed-rate-cut-forecast-october-december-2025-10-03/

4. OpenAI. 22 September 2025. OpenAI and NVIDIA announce strategic partnership to deploy 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems. OpenAI. https://openai.com/index/openai-nvidia-systems-partnership/

5. Napolitano, L. 3 October 2025. Bitcoin rallies to within 1% of all-time high, gaining safe haven status during shutdown. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/03/bitcoin-rallies-to-within-1percent-of-all-time-high-gaining-safe-haven-status-during-shutdown-.html

6. Edwards, W. 30 September 2025. Gold and stocks are setting records at the same time. Here's why that's unusual and what it means. Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/gold-price-stock-rally-unusual-explained-inflation-unrest-ai-debt-2025-9

7. Smith, I., and Herbert, E. 14 September 2025. French companies’ borrowing costs fall below government’s as debt fears intensify. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/be40c638-77ce-4986-9274-fa157d3a0ffb

8. TOI Business Desk. 30 September 2025. GDP growth at 6.5%: US tariffs to weigh down India's economic growth? Here is what ADB says. The Times of India. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/gdp-growth-at-6-5-us-tariffs-to-weigh-down-indias-economic-growth-here-is-what-adb-says/articleshow/124232395.cms

9. Draghi, M., and European Commission. 2025. The future of European competitiveness. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.

10. Morningstar. 3 October 2025. Indexes. Morningstar. https://www.morningstar.com/markets/indexes

11. Freddie Mac. 2 October 2025. Mortgage Rates Increase. Freddie Mac. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

12. Federal Student Aid Office. 2025. FAFSA® Application Deadlines. U.S. Department of Education. https://studentaid.gov/apply-for-aid/fafsa/fafsa-deadlines

13. Medicare. 2025. Joining a plan. U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. https://www.medicare.gov/basics/get-started-with-medicare/get-more-coverage/joining-a-plan

14. Parys, S., Tennant, R., de la Fuente, P., and Orem, P. 17 June 2025. When Are Taxes Due? Tax Day and Other Filing Deadlines. NerdWallet. https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/tax-deadline-tax-day-taxes-due

 

Disclosures

A.G. Advisory Firm, LLC (“A.G. Advisory”) is a Registered Investment Adviser. 

This content is intended to provide general information about A.G. Advisory. It is not intended to offer or deliver investment advice in any way. Information regarding investment services are provided solely to gain an understanding of our investment philosophy, our strategies and to be able to contact us for further information.

 

All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.

 

The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur.

 

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

 

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy will be profitable. 

Additional Important Disclosures may be found in the A.G. Advisory Form ADV Part 2A. For a copy, please Contact Us at info@agadvisoryfirm.com.